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Is the deck "Rigged" at
Poker Stars?
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Here to read replies to this post in the forum. |
QUICK READ VERSION:
1. Random Number Generator, (RNG) is a microchip, that deals the
cards to make a new deck.
2. There are 4 inputs to a RNG. The “seed”, P1, P2 and N.
3. There are 2 main types of RNG’s in use for gaming. Linear RNG's
and Thermal Entropy RNG's.
4. Linear RNG’s can be easily manipulated to give a predictable
output by inserting known numbers for the "seed", P1, P2 and N.
5. Thermal Entropy means gathering environmental "noise" from
device drivers and other electronic sources around the device.
Imagine the noise from cars on all of the highways in the USA
being monitored at once into a totally unpredictable noise pool
which would never-ever be the same. This noise is stopped for a
nanosecond and is turned into a binary number. That binary number
is then routed to one of the 4 inputs of the RNG. This process
repeats for P1, P2 and N. It is astronomically impossible to
repeat matching inputs to all 4 nodes of the RNG. In this sense,
true randomness is acheived.
6. Thermal Entropy RNG’s are NOT able to be manipulated as the
inputs to the “seed”, P1, P2 and N are determined by “noise” in
the electronic neighborhood.
7. Poker, slots, Keno and other machines in Vegas use linear RNG’s
which can be programmed to provide repeatable outputs. There is
NOTHING random about those outputs and they are varied to meet the
casino’s need for profit.
8. Poker Stars claims to use an Intel, Thermal Entropy RNG that
has been tested by the most prestigious of research teams to be a
truly random device.
MAIN ARTICLE
I always hear people bitch and complain that the deals are too
much in favor of the lower hand going into a showdown. The truth
in my opinion is that it is 99.99% random. I have researched how
the hands are electronically dealt with a random number generator
and how to insure true randomness.
After researching the deal and random number generators this is
how the deck is shuffled. First the deck of 52 is shuffled. Then
the top card is placed on a "table" Then the remaining 51 cards
are shuffled again. Then the top card is once again taken off, but
placed on top of the card that is on the "table" Once again the
procedure starts only with 50 cards, then 49 and on and on until 2
cards are left. What you are left with is a deck on an imaginary
"table". That deck is then used to deal off the top 1 by 1 card to
make peoples hands for that deal and the subsequent flop, turn and
river.
To fully understand the bottom paragraphs, see the scatter chart
and learn about the "seed" in Random Number Generators by clicking
on this link:
http://www.math.utah.edu/~alfeld/Random/Random.html
There is a Java based program on that page to run a "linear"
random number generator and play with the "seed" of that function.
By manipulating the "seed" (increase the seed value in the Java
window) you will see the scatter chart lose its random nature.
That is how casinos in Las Vegas "tighten" or "loosen" the
electronic poker machines. For instance during very busy holiday
periods the casinos may lower the payouts and increase the house
revenue by tightening the "seed." When the casinos are not busy,
they loosen the "seed" to attract people with better payouts. All
of this can be done remotely from a central operations room in the
casino that controls all machines, poker, slots, keno, etc.
Now even though
Poker Stars could play with the "seed" there is no
logical reason in my opinion for them to do that. Since they don't
make money by people putting quarters in a machine they have no
vested interest in manipulating the deck. It is in their best
interest to insure true random play for when the accounting firms
come to review their hand histories to certify them as honest.
Nevada State Gaming Laws allow the casinos to manipulate the
payouts. What? Yes of course. How else can they say that a bank of
poker machines in a satellite will return a 99% payout ratio
without being able to manipulate the machine? They use a "seed" to
generate predictable hands over an extended period of time.
However Nevada State Gaming Laws also have a minimum low payout
figure that all casinos must abide by.
Now Poker Stars claims to use an Intel Random Generator chip with
the added security of "thermal entropy" to insure complete
randomness. This random number generator gathers environmental
noise (called thermal entropy) from device drivers and other
sources into an entropy pool which then sets off the RNG to act in
a totally random nature. Normal linear (non-thermal entropy) RNG's
have been known to be "hacked" and the outputs can be
predetermined. There is no way anyone can hack a thermal entropy
RNG as it is set off not by a seed, but by thermal noise. Now keep
in mind that even if a RNG was hacked you could only predetermine
1 hand after another that you were involved in. Since it is
impossible for you to be in every consecutive hand dealt by
Poker
Stars, even by hacking a "linear" RNG you would not have the
luxury of any advantage. So, to have any ability to predict hands
on the Poker Stars software and output of the thermal RNG's is
without a doubt 100% impossible. Bottom line: Anyone that thinks
the hands at Poker Stars are rigged or thinks they can predict the
hands is full of bullshit.
I have heard people say that they have heard of a program that
will read the other player's cards in a given hand at the table
they are at. That is false. The hand information that the server
generates for your particular hand is only sent to you for your
cards and the community hand, and the rest of the information is
kept in house. There is no way you could crack the other players
hands as you don't have access to their hand information at your
terminal. However, if a person could hack into the
Poker Stars
server, theoretically they could monitor the hand you were
involved in. But, all of that information is encrypted in house
anyway, and not only would you need to breach the firewalls of
Poker Stars, and gain entry to their computers, you would also
need to bypass the encryption process which is impossible. I doubt
if the NSA or FBI's top-notch computer geniuses of the world could
even come close to gaining access to that information.
PriceWaterhouse or whatever accounting firm that checks the deals
periodically at
Poker Stars or any online casino, take a sample of
a number of past hands dealt that is statistically good enough to
make a accurate prediction of fair play. The results of those
deals are plotted on a scatter chart and that scatter chart will
visually show any trends. Any "clumping" of points on a scatter
chart will reveal events that are not truly random.
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